Most Fort Worth-area school districts see enrollment decline as charters, suburbs gain

Most Fort Worth-area school districts enrolled fewer students this fall semester than they did a year ago, continuing a trend that’s reshaped classrooms and budgets across the region.

Eight of the 13 districts that reported figures to the Fort Worth Report this September saw enrollment decline compared with 2024.

School choice, along with declining birth rates and migration patterns, are contributing to enrollment drops, according to officials in Fort Worth, Arlington and Keller ISDs. 

Thousands of students attend public charter schools in the area. The latest state data shows that during the 2024-25 school year, more than 49,000 enrolled in a charter. Public school leaders worry they’ll lose even more families when the Texas education savings account program launches next school year.

Texas funds schools largely based on how many students attend classes each day. Fewer students translate directly into fewer dollars. 

Districts such as Fort Worth ISD, which adopted a $1 billion budget with a $43.6 million shortfall for this school year, could feel more strain as students turn to other options.

Already, Superintendent Karen Molinar eliminated 19 job titles and shifted $22.7 million away from central administration.

FWISD, the city’s largest district, has seen the sharpest drop since the pandemic. Enrollment fell to 67,705 students in September, down from nearly 83,000 during the 2019-20 school year.

Administrators said during an August board meeting that projections show the district, which faces a potential state takeover because of lagging school performance, will keep losing students in the coming years. 

“We know we are still working on our students,” Molinar said. “If they chose to go to a different district or a different school, a charter school, (or) private school, we’ll collect that information as well.”

Average daily attendance, the figure that determines state funding, hovered near 96% for the first two weeks. To keep more students in FWISD, officials launched “Operation School Matters,” this week, a campaign of phone calls and home visits aimed at reengaging families who may have left for other districts, charters or private schools.

Fort Worth ISD is not alone. Other Fort Worth-area districts are also seeing enrollment declines.

Keller ISD lost ground, shrinking to 30,440 students — a 14% decline since 2019-20. 

“It’s a few hundred fewer than we originally projected, though we saw it coming just ahead of the start of the school year and were able to adjust our staffing and hiring accordingly,” Keller ISD spokesperson Bryce Nieman said.

Everman ISD steadily declined, falling to 4,737 students from more than 6,000 before the pandemic. 

“Trending lower than expected,” Everman ISD spokesperson Nikita Russell said, though she noted pre-K and kindergarten enrollment numbers have held steady. 

Arlington ISD’s enrollment dipped to 51,395, down from more than 59,000 in 2019. District leaders and demographers warn the number could drop below 50,000 by 2032, driven by fewer kindergarteners entering classrooms and families opting for charter schools, according to a May report presented to trustees.

Other districts are holding their ground or growing. 

Northwest ISD, one of the state’s fastest-growing systems, climbed to 32,764 students this fall, a 30.8% increase since 2019. The district budgeted for an increase of 1,100 students this school year, projecting to reach 33,144 by the end of October. Officials are dealing with the challenges that come with growth, such as building new schools to meet demand.

“We have not seen any unexpected dips,” Northwest ISD spokesperson Anthony Tosie said. 

Aledo ISD, the area’s second-fastest growing district since 2019, continues to climb. The district projected enrollment at 8,693 students this fall — an increase of 263 students, or just over 3%, from last year’s official state count. 

Spokesperson Mercedes Mayer said the district is tracking almost exactly where they thought it’d be for enrollment, though growth is slower than it was a few years ago.

In Eagle Mountain-Saginaw ISD, enrollment rose to 24,221. Spokesperson Matthew LeBlanc pointed to pre-K gains this year, though younger grades are lagging. 

“Like most schools, we are noticing fewer students in grades K-2,” he said.

Tarrant County’s birth rate has declined over the past 20 years, from about 17.3 births per 1,000 people in 2005 to about 14 per 1,000 in 2020. The actual number of babies born over that same span dropped as well, suggesting fewer young children are entering kindergarten, according to state data and the Fort Worth Chamber of Commerce.

Hurst-Euless-Bedford ISD has hovered near 23,000 since 2020. The district counted 23,200 students as of Sept. 3.

“This is more than our projections. Pre-K is above our projections as well,” spokesperson Deanne Hullender said. 

Castleberry ISD’s numbers remain relatively flat, while Crowley ISD ticked up slightly to 16,990, about a 2% increase from last year, and Burleson ISD slipped slightly to 12,622.

The shifts reflect broader statewide trends: overall Texas enrollment grew only 0.2% during the 2023-24 school year — the smallest increase since the state began collecting data. 

Public schools saw declines concentrated in early elementary grades and among white students, according to the Texas Education Agency. Hispanic, Asian and multiracial student populations increased across the state. Most enrollment growth occurred in suburban and rural districts, according to the agency. 

Where are students going?

Thousands of Fort Worth-area students each year don’t attend the neighborhood campuses they’re zoned to. Instead, families choose schools in other districts, charter networks or other options.

The latest transfer records from the 2024-25 school year show the biggest shifts are into charter campuses. Uplift Education, International Leadership of Texas, IDEA Public Schools, Trinity Basin Preparatory and Harmony Public Schools–North Texas enroll the largest numbers of Fort Worth-area students leaving traditional districts.

Suburban districts are also steady destinations. Grand Prairie, Birdsville and Grapevine-Colleyville ISDs continue to draw families who live inside Fort Worth ISD and other Fort Worth-area districts.

Next year, the state will launch what’s expected to be the nation’s largest voucherlike program. The education savings accounts, or ESAs, will allow parents to use state funds for private school tuition or other approved educational expenses. 

The program is capped at $1 billion and will start enrolling students for the 2026-27 school year, meaning tens of thousands of students could participate in the program’s first year.

Matthew Sgroi is an education reporter for the Fort Worth Report. Contact him at matthew.sgroi@fortworthreport.org or @matthewsgroi1. 

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